Yemen, the US, Russia, and Iran: Outlook and Commercial Impact

Why we are reviewing our Yemen forecast, with implications for risks to Red Sea and Black Sea shipping, energy, aviation, and the rest of the Gulf.

Commercial Sectors: Shipping in the Red Sea and Black Sea, aviation, insurance, commodity traders, importers-exporters.

Editor’s note on how we write: The first section is for analysts. This is where we provide our reasoning. The second is for commercial clients. This is where we give commercial implications. If you are a busy decision maker, you just want to read the last section, Commercial Implications (paywalled), and skip the analysis. If you are an analyst supporting a decision maker, you want to read the first part (partly paywalled), and then evaluate if the commercial implications are right. We mention the commercial sectors affected so you can know if this is of interest.

Analysis:

We had previously said that bombing the Houthi (Ansar Allah) in the manner previously done from 2006 (with a major increased from 2015) was futile. This time, with the Trump administration, a different type of war is to be expected, driven by a much changed international environment and improved intelligence.

Below, we will go through the potential outcomes, Russia and Iran’s role in this conflict, the likelihood and timeframe of success, and the commercial implications for shipping, insurance and others.