American strategy and the future of the GCC
Understanding the American blockade and how it will backfire
Commercial Focus: Shipping, infrastructure, bypass export channels, the Red Sea.
Blockading Iran will solve nothing.
Iraq was placed under a comprehensive embargo from 1990 to 2003. The regime survived, and only a ground campaign provided a “solution”. Even then, the “solution” could not defeat geography and demographics. Iran came out on top in Iraq due to these factors.
In Iran’s case, the matter is complicated by Iran having direct access to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, access to Russia via the Caspian, a far more defensible terrain than Iraq’s, a much larger population, access to the sea along a 900-mile coast, and an incomparably more capable military. Not to mention Iran’s ability to shut down Gulf Arab oil, and the Red Sea, risking a major global financial crisis far larger than that of 2008.
American President Donald Trump, by his nature, and given his need to rebuild his broken right wing coalition together, wants this blockade to produce quick results. As we have said, a full blockade is likely not sustainable, and will partly fail, all while risking escalation with China.
The question then becomes, does Trump decide to kick the can down the road, keeping negotiations ongoing while the USA completes another military build-up, or does the conflict resume, and, if so, when, and with what intensity?
