Europe's Coming Catastrophic Riots
How the changing politics in the US - and the inspiration that gives to the European right - leads to higher unrest risks in Europe and what it means for retailers and PV insurers.
Trump’s revolutionary government is inspiring right wingers throughout Europe. They want to replicate Trump’s deportation policy at an even larger scale. They also want to assert the pre-eminence of European culture in the face of combative, aggressive Islam. They want to replicate Trump’s freezing of funding to NGOs that promote left wing ideologies and causes - these days, this applies to practically all NGOs. They want to terminate DEI policies and remove those hired through them. And they want to cut benefits to foreigners or those of a non-European background.
Given the sheer number of Muslim and African migrants on benefits in Europe, implementing policies mirroring those of Trump will likely trigger mass unrest, creating an economic as well as a religious driver for conflict.
We note that the genius of Islamic State was that it could seamlessly blend militant jihadism with criminal enterprises such as weapons and drugs smuggling, illicit oil trade, and selling stolen artefacts. We believe that unrest in Europe would involve a similar blend of crime, terrorism and rioting.
We detail below some of the possible catastrophe scenarios.
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Scenario:
In a given European country, after a major cut to benefits and an increase in deportations, protests break out in migrant communities, with left wing antifa groups joining in. Right wing youth counter protest. Violence ensues. The police are filmed beating migrant protesters. This sparks much wider rioting in a major city.