Lebanon: The coming UNIFIL withdrawal
Israel war risks and Sunni radicalism
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which has been in the country since 1978, is scheduled to withdraw over the course of 2027.
This is a disastrous situation. Although the UNIFIL is far less than an effective force against Hezbollah, let alone Israel, its main role has been to act as a monitoring force, politically limiting Israel’s ability to take Lebanese territory. In theory, the Lebanese Army is meant to exercise its sovereignty over South Lebanon. In reality, the Lebanese Army is 30% to 50% Shi’a in its lower ranks, meaning that the Army would fragment if it went against Hezbollah without the latter’s acquiescence. Despite this dynamic, the Lebanese Army is making slow but steady progress in dismantling parts of Hezbollah’s network, and the group appears to have severe trouble maintaining operations in South Lebanon. However, should this attempt to disarm Hezbollah lead to escalation between the group and the state, this would quickly draw in outside intervention, including by Israel and Syria, at a time when the Lebanese state is too broke and broken to respond.
France is lobbying for its forces to remain in Lebanon in some capacity. France views Lebanon as a key potential outpost on the Eastern Mediterranean, valuable against Turkey and its ambitions. However, Israel wants to rid itself of any pressure from the UN, and it convinced the USA to side with it. The alternative would have been to make a deal with the Lebanese Shi’a in order to use them as a buffer against the surging Sunnis. Which may be possible if a new Iran deal is reached.
Meanwhile, Lebanese Sunnis are increasingly mobilising to force the state to release Sunni Islamist prisoners. This campaign is coordinated with the new Syrian authorities, whose allies and citizens are among those who have been arrested over the course of the 2011-2024 Syrian Civil War. There is currently no moderate, competent, Sunni Lebanese leadership, creating a dangerous vacuum. And Sunni anger, especially in Tripoli in the north, is increasing. Additionally, there are reports of Sunni and Christian groups receiving weapons training in anticipation of a conflict. These reports are not new, and have resurfaced repeatedly over many years. We cannot independently verify them yet.
