Middle East Update

Israel resumes bombing Hezbollah, while personnel changes in Trump's administration suggest more pressure on Israel.

Commercial Summary: An Israeli strike on Iran is unlikely as the Americans weaken Israel’s influence within the American establishment. Hezbollah’s fear of attacks from Syria precludes its disarmament. Syria’s normalisation continues apace, while Lebanon is stuck in place.

Lebanon

On 5 June, Israel conducted a series of airstrikes in the southern suburb of Beirut, targeting locations allegedly associated with Hezbollah. This was on the eve of Eid al-Adha, one of the holiest days in Islam.

The wreckage in Kafaat, southern suburb of Beirut, after an Israeli strike.

The aim of these strikes was to show, on a particularly important religious holiday, that Hezbollah lost its ability to deter Israel, and that its holding on to its weapons north of the River Litani is pointless.

Hezbollah has been trying to rebuild its military capabilities, but it has no counter to Israel’s air force. Israel’s strategy is to continue striking Hezbollah to prevent it from rearming, while also highlighting its impotence. This in turn contributes to internal debates within Lebanon, and supports the case of those Lebanese calling for Hezbollah to fully disarm.

Lebanon: Normalisation or war?

For Hezbollah, however, this makes it hold on to its weapons more ferociously: simply, it is too afraid of Lebanon and Syria’s Sunnis, and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon’s Christians, who may see its disarmament as an opportunity to settle scores with it. This is especially salient given the continuing massacres and extra-judicial killings of Syria’s Alawites, who were allied with, and dependent on, Hezbollah during Syria’s civil war.

Syria

The normalisation and consolidation of the new Syrian government continues. The IMF has held talks with Syria for the first time in 18 years. European delegations are visiting Syria. And President Ahmed al-Shara’ (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) is preparing to visit New York to deliver Syria’s address to the UN General Assembly.

On 3 June, a group calling itself the “Martyr Mohmmad Daif Brigades” claimed an attack using two Grad-type rockets against Israeli forces in the Golan Heights. Israel responded with artillery and airstrikes. Israel held the new Syrian authorities responsible for any attacks.

It is not known who the “Daif Brigades” are. We speculate that they are affiliated with Hezbollah, and aim at first, highlighting the ability of Hezbollah to continue attacking Israel, second, deepening the conflict between the new Syrian authorities and Israel, especially given how Israel has expanded the territories it controls in Syria, and third, forcing an escalation between Syria’s new protector, Turkey, and Israel. This gives Iran and Hezbollah more room to manoeuvre in Syria.

In response, Syria intercepted a weapons shipment headed through its territories to Lebanon, almost certainly to Hezbollah.

Shifting American priorities

President Donald Trump has replaced, or intends to replace, various national security and diplomatic personnel charged with various Middle East portfolios. These include Merav Ceren, an Israeli-American official charged with the Iran and Israel portfolios, Eric Trager, a Washington Institute former fellow responsible for the MENA portfolio. Morgan Ortagus, a Catholic convert to Judaism responsible for the Lebanon portfolio, is also reportedly on her way out. These are staunchly pro-Israel officials, and their removals may indicate a shift in American policy towards Israel.

Crucially, Lebanese media are reporting that Hezbollah is in direct talks with the US, following on direct talks between the US and Hamas, and the US and Ansar Allah (the Houthi), in Yemen. This may be a contributing factor to Israeli strikes.

Commercial Implications

• A US or Israeli strike on Iran is increasingly unlikely. Rather, the Americans appear to be willing to talk to each constituent of the so-called Resistance Axis to reach separate terms with it, away from the influence of both Iran and Israel.