Recognising Palestine and the Coming Escalation

Why recognition of a Palestinian state makes everything worse, unless Trump puts his foot down.

Britain, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Malta, France, Belgium and others recognised the state of Palestine in a coordinated manner.

The recognitions reflect an attempt to work with the Arabs to impose on the Israelis terms that are acceptable to the Israeli opposition - the disarmament of Gaza and the West Bank - but not to Netanyahu and his coalition - who are seeking the full displacement of the Palestinians.

Netanyahu’s likely reaction

We expect Netanyahu to proceed with government plans to fully annex the West Bank. His first public statement on the recognitions was to confirm that he has been working all his life to prevent a Palestinian state, and that he will continue to do so. He had previously gone as far as to tell the Israelis to prepare for potential international isolation, though it is evident to us that the pro-Israel lobby and wealthy Israelis living in the West will do everything they can to prevent this isolation.

Already, Israel has been cutting off Palestinian communities in the West Bank from one another, separating the region into manageable urban areas that can be isolated and targeted individually for destruction and perhaps ethnic cleansing. Furthermore, Israel has been choking off funding for the Palestinian Authority - the proto-government of a future Palestinian state - to bankrupt it and turn the public against it. Then there is the question of succession to 90-year old Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Israel will most likely support different potential successors to help trigger infighting and chaos. Last, Israeli settlements are regularly expanding, with the latest expansion intended to cut off Jerusalem from the West Bank and surround it by Jewish citizens, and to cut off the northern West Bank from the south.

These actions are intended to achieve the following:

• Trigger armed unrest against Israel

• Trigger unrest and internal conflict within PA-controlled areas

• Prepare for an Israeli military response that is similar to that taking place in Gaza

A homemade rocket found in Tulkarm, the West Bank, by the IDF on 23 September.

The Americans

The only party that can force the Israelis to abandon this plan is the United States of America. Israel, with its attack on Qatar targeting a negotiating team, its attack on Iran two days before Iran-US elections, and its insistence on continuing the war in Gaza, is humiliating and discrediting the USA and President Trump personally.

Israeli strike on Doha

However, Israel’s famously powerful influence over Congress, the State Department, Fox News, and the War Department will almost certainly be used to thwart the Trump administration if it attempts to impose limits on its freedom of action. Trump may be able to force Israel to de-escalate after the 2026 mid-term elections, but, between now and then, he cannot risk paralysing Congress.

That said, Trump’s extreme unpredictability must be factored in. He could choose to relax compliance with legislation requiring Israel to maintain a qualitative military edge over its Arab neighbours in a bid to constrain Israel. Or he could make aid more difficult, including military aid and shipments of ammunition, spare parts, and so on. Congress would be certain to oppose this, however, and may even threaten to halt support for Trump’s domestic agenda, which it has been slow-walking anyway.

America’s peace plan

The USA has proposed a plan whereby Muslim and Arab forces would be deployed to police Gaza and allow reconstruction. This is likely unacceptable to Israel and would represent a defeat: Hamas would be sure to survive, regardless of efforts to repress it. Muslim soldiers may turn sympathetic to Hamas. And, if, after all this death and destruction in Gaza, the recognition of a Palestinian state, and the damage to Israel’s diplomatic and global standing, the 7 October 2023 war becomes merely another “mowing the lawn” operation, that is, a military operation that does not uproot the enemy and end the threat, this would represent an unmitigated strategic defeat.

Commercial Implications

• As long as Israel does not face American-imposed consequences for its actions, it will continue to escalate, be that against Iran, Hamas, Syria, Lebanon, or any other actor. The Trump administration can stop Israel if it is willing to pay the domestic costs.