I remain horrified by what has occurred in Syria and staggered that a man like Julani is now being feted by western politicians. Naivety on my part, obviously. May God help the people of Syria remain safe from these monsters.
I strongly disagree with your assessment. Completely detached from the realities on the ground. Syria will never become stable under al-Sharaa. He will remain unable and unwilling to moderate himself or HTS or his foreign jihadists (who will remain the backbone of HTS and the source of its authority). There will be no foreign investments or economic recovery while HTS (al-Qaeda) rule half of the country under a strict Salafist-Jihadist ideology and their IS comrades roam free in the desert. Syria will see a rapid collapse in socio-economic and security conditions and the country will soon become a regional extremist jihadist hub that will pose serious national security threat on the entire region. happy to discuss this further.
If Shara' has American backing, even after the massacres against the Alawites, and he has Turkish, Saudi, and Jordanian backing, he will consolidate. Israel and Iran working together would be a problem, but, for that to happen, lots has to change in Iran and between Iran and Israel. There is a lot changing in Iran, a sort of soft regime change, but the Americans do not want another Middle Eastern conflict for now. And the longer Shara' is in power the stronger he becomes.
This is Taliban but without sanctions. It's a new model.
He only has regional backing because he convinced them (for the time being) that he is the only one who stabilise the country and keep foreign jihadists/IS in check, but this view will soon change very quickly once they realise that he is unable to stabilise anything and also unable and unwilling to moderate his Salafist jihadist constituency. There is no chance HTS will be able to survive only with external backing more than 6-12 months
Let's think about it coldly. If the Americans do not want the Israelis backing the Druse or the Alawites, and the Iranians cannot reach them, these groups will not be a threat. Same story for the Kurds in Syria.
If he controls the money, and is in charge, he will be able to control his own factions - he showed that he can leash them and unleash them whenever he wants.
They do not have to become liberal democrats. They just have to stay on a leash.
What am I missing? That the various factions will start fighting each other? Perhaps. But then where do they get regular supplies from? How does it topple him? They assassinate him - always possible and for any country, but he is surrounded by loyalists and Turkish intelligence.
This perception of al-Jolani as a 'strong man' who can leash/unleash his factions is false. He's walking a very fragile balance and trying to consolidate his authority by allocating top political and economic gains to his loyal inner circle while keeping his second and lower-tier commanders loyal by giving them free-reign on seizing all civilian assets they like as ghanaim. Al-Assaad tried this formula and it failed. Adding that al-Jolani currently only controls less than 50% of the country, and there is no chance that the SNA-SDF-Druze will surrender their arms to HTS and integrate in the long-term outlook.
Foreign and hardline jihadists remain the backbone of HTS, any attempt by al-Jolani to sideline/get rid of them will spark a countrywide jihadist war. I think this is increasingly becoming very likely if al-Jolani pledged/attempted to move against IS.
My assessment is that relying external legitimacy and photos with world leaders will not help al-Jolani to consolidate his rule. HTS authority on the ground will very likely fragment and the whole country will devolve back into civil war chaos in the 6-12 months outlook.
I hope I'm proven wrong, and I'm more than happy to have an in-depth discussion on this
My assessment is based on the fact that this is not Jolani's first rodeo. He successfully navigated the same exact challenges in Idlib for years. He managed to turn against Islamic State, then al-Qaeda, and to maintain a degree of independence from Turkey. He regularly refused the Turks' orders and managed to keep them onside.
Jolani is playing the same game that he has proven adept at playing for a long time. This guy was handing over commanders to have the Americans drone them quite regularly. And they're willing to do that now, still, as are the Turks.
The Druse, Alawites, national defence forces, and others, need not surrender their personal weapons. But, just like Lebanon, where there is a balance and everyone is armed, there will be a balance in Syria. They will not keep their heavy weapons as these are easily detectable by the Turks, who are willing to back Jolani.
Syria has been at war for 14 years. No faction has public support to go to war now. Nor external support.
I remain horrified by what has occurred in Syria and staggered that a man like Julani is now being feted by western politicians. Naivety on my part, obviously. May God help the people of Syria remain safe from these monsters.
I strongly disagree with your assessment. Completely detached from the realities on the ground. Syria will never become stable under al-Sharaa. He will remain unable and unwilling to moderate himself or HTS or his foreign jihadists (who will remain the backbone of HTS and the source of its authority). There will be no foreign investments or economic recovery while HTS (al-Qaeda) rule half of the country under a strict Salafist-Jihadist ideology and their IS comrades roam free in the desert. Syria will see a rapid collapse in socio-economic and security conditions and the country will soon become a regional extremist jihadist hub that will pose serious national security threat on the entire region. happy to discuss this further.
If Shara' has American backing, even after the massacres against the Alawites, and he has Turkish, Saudi, and Jordanian backing, he will consolidate. Israel and Iran working together would be a problem, but, for that to happen, lots has to change in Iran and between Iran and Israel. There is a lot changing in Iran, a sort of soft regime change, but the Americans do not want another Middle Eastern conflict for now. And the longer Shara' is in power the stronger he becomes.
This is Taliban but without sanctions. It's a new model.
He only has regional backing because he convinced them (for the time being) that he is the only one who stabilise the country and keep foreign jihadists/IS in check, but this view will soon change very quickly once they realise that he is unable to stabilise anything and also unable and unwilling to moderate his Salafist jihadist constituency. There is no chance HTS will be able to survive only with external backing more than 6-12 months
Let's think about it coldly. If the Americans do not want the Israelis backing the Druse or the Alawites, and the Iranians cannot reach them, these groups will not be a threat. Same story for the Kurds in Syria.
If he controls the money, and is in charge, he will be able to control his own factions - he showed that he can leash them and unleash them whenever he wants.
They do not have to become liberal democrats. They just have to stay on a leash.
What am I missing? That the various factions will start fighting each other? Perhaps. But then where do they get regular supplies from? How does it topple him? They assassinate him - always possible and for any country, but he is surrounded by loyalists and Turkish intelligence.
Time will tell.
This perception of al-Jolani as a 'strong man' who can leash/unleash his factions is false. He's walking a very fragile balance and trying to consolidate his authority by allocating top political and economic gains to his loyal inner circle while keeping his second and lower-tier commanders loyal by giving them free-reign on seizing all civilian assets they like as ghanaim. Al-Assaad tried this formula and it failed. Adding that al-Jolani currently only controls less than 50% of the country, and there is no chance that the SNA-SDF-Druze will surrender their arms to HTS and integrate in the long-term outlook.
Foreign and hardline jihadists remain the backbone of HTS, any attempt by al-Jolani to sideline/get rid of them will spark a countrywide jihadist war. I think this is increasingly becoming very likely if al-Jolani pledged/attempted to move against IS.
My assessment is that relying external legitimacy and photos with world leaders will not help al-Jolani to consolidate his rule. HTS authority on the ground will very likely fragment and the whole country will devolve back into civil war chaos in the 6-12 months outlook.
I hope I'm proven wrong, and I'm more than happy to have an in-depth discussion on this
I very much respect what you're saying.
My assessment is based on the fact that this is not Jolani's first rodeo. He successfully navigated the same exact challenges in Idlib for years. He managed to turn against Islamic State, then al-Qaeda, and to maintain a degree of independence from Turkey. He regularly refused the Turks' orders and managed to keep them onside.
Jolani is playing the same game that he has proven adept at playing for a long time. This guy was handing over commanders to have the Americans drone them quite regularly. And they're willing to do that now, still, as are the Turks.
The Druse, Alawites, national defence forces, and others, need not surrender their personal weapons. But, just like Lebanon, where there is a balance and everyone is armed, there will be a balance in Syria. They will not keep their heavy weapons as these are easily detectable by the Turks, who are willing to back Jolani.
Syria has been at war for 14 years. No faction has public support to go to war now. Nor external support.
He's a winner until the USA decides it doesn't need him anymore...like Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi.?....Well see. Only time will tell.