Trump delays an inevitable, impossible choice
Ten minutes after publishing the article below, Trump backed down, temporarily.
On Truth Social, Trump said: “In accordance with the request of the Iranian government, please regard this message as an official statement that I am extending the deadline for the destruction of energy facilities in Iran by ten days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. The talks are continuing, and despite false statements to the contrary by the fake media and others, they are progressing very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
First, please have pity on this poor scribe trying to keep up with this escalation yo-yo.
Second, Trump is merely delaying an inevitable decision:
Either escalate massively, and risk commensurate escalation against infrastructure and energy in the Gulf, or accept that Iran can blackmail any Gulf country at will. Meaning that Iran and Russia will together dominate OPEC+, that Iran can charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and control GCC trade, that the Americans are incapable of protecting the Gulf, and that America is an Atlantic power with some global pretensions.
Were Trump not deterred by Iran’s threats and capabilities, he would not be trying to find ways to climb down. For Iran, this is a signal that its strategy is working. Meaning that it will be less likely to make concessions. Rather, this is an invitation for Iran to test Trump and escalate, especially against Kuwait and the UAE, which are the likely staging grounds for any ground operation.
As such, we do not retract our previous article. Rather, the same logic holds, but it applies a little bit later than we initially thought. And again, this may be just cover to deceive the Iranians before a ground operation takes place: by launching two attacks on Iran while talks were ongoing, Trump has proven to the Iranians that his diplomatic overtures are not to be trusted.