Trump's ceasefire is teetering

A political disaster for Israel is brewing.

On 3 October, Hamas said yes and no to Trump’s ceasefire proposal: Hamas said yes to handing over the hostages and to handing control of Gaza to an independent Palestinian body (implicitly, not Tony Blair), gave no response on disarmament and withdrawal, and said it would negotiate the remaining terms. A Hamas leader spoke to media and stated that the entry of foreign troops was unacceptable, and implied that disarmament would not happen.

Trump responded by telling Israel to immediately stop bombing Gaza, which Israel ignored.

Donald Trump posted an image on his Truth Social account showing protesters in Tel Aviv demanding Netanyahu accept the deal to release the captives. This is an unusual level of intervention in Israeli politics. Usually, the intervention goes the other way.

Trump’s endorsement of Hamas’ half-acceptance of the deal reflects his desire to end the war quickly. Israel’s objectives are simply unattainable without full ethnic cleansing.

Trump’s statement reflects three things:

1. Trump, like many Israeli generals, commentators, and citizens, has accepted that the full defeat of Hamas is unattainable at an acceptable reputational and humanitarian cost.

2. The cost to Israel and the USA of continuing the war - in terms of reputational damage, geopolitical damage, and the increasing unity between the left and the right against Israel - has become unacceptable to the USA, requiring an immediate end to the war. Trump does not want to see Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East siding with China against the USA and Israel. This was tolerable in a unipolar world, but the world is no longer unipolar.

3. Trump likely wants to prioritise an attack on Hezbollah, another strike on Iran, or intervention in Venezuela, though the exact aim of either is unclear. If Israel disobeys Trump on Gaza, however, this may reduce the likelihood of a strike on Iran or on Hezbollah.

Iran War Risk Update

Strikes on Venezuela?

Israel’s position

The Israeli government mistakenly believes that Israelis can be perfectly safe in the Middle East as a hated, militarised minority. They therefore want the full defeat of Hamas to obtain that safety. But that can only happen if the still culturally Christian West permits the ethnic cleansing of Gaza in the teeth of opposition from the Muslim world. Neither Christendom nor the Muslim Ummah will allow this, and Trump does not want to lead a clash with the Muslim world for the sake of Israel. However, the extent of Israeli influence over the American political system has so far prevented Trump from fully cutting off Israel to force Netanyahu to comply with his wishes. And Netanyahu believes he has enough influence over America to thwart Trump’s peace plan, as he has done in the past with both Trump and Biden.

An image circulating on Israeli social media, depicting Donald Trump as a Hamas fighter. This cannot possibly go down well with Trump, given his temperament and what he has already done for Israel.

Implications: