Understanding Trump's Contradictory Statements
The Iranians know that the Americans are constrained, and are pressing their advantage. The Americans are getting ready to return to war.
Commercial topics: The return to war, Pakistan’s possible entry and its potential second order consequences, Egypt’s possible entry into the war, shipping, power, life in the GCC.
American President Donald Trump has likely decided to continue the war, perhaps indefinitely. His options are constrained. If he returns to attacking Iran, even more oil and gas infrastructure will be destroyed, and his domestic support will plummet further. Moreover, Iran would be certain to close Bab al-Mandab, as it matches escalation with counter-escalation. Additionally, Trump cannot afford a ground campaign, as that would be immensely unpopular. And if he allows Iran to collect fees for transit through Hormuz, actually opening the Strait, then the American presence in the region would be pointless, and, indeed, a sign of impotent humiliation.
Iran knows how constrained the Americans are. As a result, they are unwilling to make more concessions in the ongoing talks than they made before the war started. This means that Iran is willing to dilute its nuclear stockpile, refrain from building additional stockpiles of enriched uranium, and to accept surveillance over its programme. But it is unwilling to give the nuclear programme up, let alone give up the missile programme and the support for proxies.
Trump has now shifted to blockading Iranian ports. Notably, he continued to do so even after Iran announced it would unblock Hormuz, but continue to assert its sovereignty over it This poses a huge set of challenges, as discussed earlier.
However, it also makes it much more likely that the war will resume - there is no reason for Trump to blockade Iranian ports if his intent was not to resume the war. That, in turn, would likely force American ships to back away from their blockade line against Iran, permitting more ships to pass at Iran’s discretion.
