MBS turns the tables on the USA

Israeli extremism is willing into being its own nightmare: Islamic unity, and a breakdown in American Gulf relations.

On 17 September, official statements from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan said that the two countries had signed a mutual defence pact, whereby an attack on one country would be considered an attack on both. Media reported that the USA was not informed of the treaty until after it had been signed. The timing of the announcement, less than ten days after Israeli strikes on Doha, Qatar, is significant. The lack of detail on the defence agreement suggests that it was rushed, though we have not verified this.

Game changer

Saudi Arabia has implicitly acquired a Pakistani nuclear umbrella. The decision was obviously driven by American unreliability and unbridled support for Israel, most lately shown in Israel’s strike on Doha.

Twenty years of grievances

Israeli strike on Doha

Pakistan is a key defence partner of Turkey’s - previously Saudi Arabia’s main Sunni rival. Although Turkey and Pakistan do not have a formal treaty, they regularly work together on weapons programmes and development, training, intelligence gathering, and more. Turkey even sent a the TCG Buyukada, an anti-submarine warfare corvette, to Karachi to support Pakistan against India during their May conflict, as well as sending military transports ahead of the conflict, suggesting they were supplying equipment or ammunition.

Moreover, Pakistan is deeply enmeshed with China’s defence industry. Pakistan’s command and control, radars, and air defence depend on China, even though the USA also plays a role.

American backing for Israel is driving the Islamic world into China’s arms - already its biggest commercial partner. The fear of Israeli attack is helping build alliances in the Islamic world that make it into a formidable military player. Turkey is already in a proxy war against Israel in Syria, and it is almost certain that it supports the Saudi-Pakistani pact and may be looking to join it, especially with Israel making it clear, through the strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, that it may target Turkey next.

Commercial Implications

• A key question is whether one day MBS may pull a Sadat, and, in preparation for conflict, expel American military advisors and personnel as Sadat did in 1972, in preparation for the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

• The Americans would likely prefer an unstable Saudi Arabia to one allied with and dependent on China. When we predicted a Saudi-Iranian reconciliation under Chinese auspices, we said that this would increase the risk of political instability in Saudi Arabia, as the USA may use one of its assets there to displace or even kill MBS.