Yemen: The Coming Bloodletting

The pieces are in place for a full renewal of the civil war across Yemen, but Saudi-UAE disagreements are an obstacle to America achieving its objectives.

Commercial audience: insurance (paywalled section), shipping (paywalled).

The Americans have so far not succeeded thus far in sufficiently degrading Ansar Allah (Houthi) missile, anti-ship, and drone capabilities from the air. The group can still conduct strikes against Israel and disrupt shipping. This therefore requires a ground campaign launched by Saudi and UAE proxies in Yemen, in which the Americans will provide much greater air support. Media reports suggest that Saudi Arabia will not join the campaign out of fear of Houthi reprisal attacks on its infrastructure. They will have to counter the UAE, however.

Yemen escalation and implications for Iran

UAE Saudi competition

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are themselves in conflict in Yemen over control of Hadramawt Province, which extends from the Saudi border to the Indian Ocean in the east of the country. For the Saudis, Hadramawt is a possible node through which it can export oil directly to the Indian Ocean, removing the bottlenecks created by the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz Strait in the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia also does not want UAE influence on its southern border. It shares this interest with Oman, which also does not want more UAE influence on its east.

Hadramawt, 12, is Yemen’s largest province. Adjacent to it is Mohra, 8, historically an area of Omani influence, into which the UAE is trying to encroach.

Control map of Yemen from LiveUAMap. The Houthi have the mountains of the north and much of the population.

The UAE, for its part, is attempting to gain influence over coastal areas throughout the region in order to gain leverage over as many players as possible, and to maximise its value to Israel and the United States. The Saudis reject increased UAE influence, but are not pursuing an effective alternative strategy.

While in theory the UAE and Saudi Arabia share interests, the personal rivalry between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and UAE President Mohammad bin Zayed has led the two countries to back different sides in proxy wars. This has superseded earlier cooperation, when both countries saw the Muslim Brotherhood as an existential threat. As the war in Yemen expands, the two sides will resume fighting one another, meaning that the geographic spread of the ground war will widen.

We expect major escalation on the ground after Trump completes his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for May.

Commercial Implications

• The re-ignition of conflict in Yemen will deepen Saudi-UAE rivalry, raising the risk of land border closures.

• The UAE is trying to appease the Americans in Yemen, but is also pushing the Saudis to play the role of spoiler for the American anti-Houthi strategy. The Saudis will respond by sponsoring dialogue between the Houthi and the Americans, thereby preserving their Chinese-sponsored reproachment with Iran.

Saudi-US Relations Breakdown Scenario

• We had previously argued that Gulf Arab states in general are in a precarious position in their relations with the US, as they are seeking to pursue an autonomous foreign policy while the Americans are trying to consolidate their control over the American Empire. We stand by this view as this bickering between them is harming American interests.

Sheikh Donald Soprano

• The Saudis were negotiating a commitment to invest in America between USD600 billion and USD 1.3 trillion over four years. The UAE declared it would invest USD1.4 trillion over ten years. Both will have to follow through on these commitments to maintain Trump’s favour.

• Most of the Muslim world, including Saudi Arabia, is aligning more closely with China. Saudi Arabia is paying off Trump in order to smooth this shift in external patrons, and to facilitate the succession of MBS.

• The minute that Saudi Arabia believes itself strong enough to escape American pressure, or the minute the Americans give the nod, MBS will move towards consolidating over his neighbours, with the UAE and Qatar being primary and potentially military targets.