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Iran's Ace
The Iranians think they checkmated the Gulf and the USA. But this is only the beginning.
8 hrs ago • Firas Modad
America's Success in the Iran War
Turkey is on a collision course with Iran and Israel, with Iraq and the Gulf in the crosshairs.
Jul 29 • Firas Modad
Why the Americans paused
Why they will start again, or restrict their own oil exports.
Jul 28 • Firas Modad
The Middle East will burn
Ceasefires will probably not be stable, as the war continues to escalate indefinitely.
Jul 24 • Firas Modad
Burnham's inevitable collapse
Britain's situation is set to worsen dramatically
Jul 22 • Firas Modad
Ceasefire or a runaway fire?
If the war continues, the map of the GCC will change, with some countries becoming unviable, as a global economic crisis intensifies.
Jul 20 • Firas Modad
The Iranians only have the Samson Option
And neither side has a way out.
Jul 17 • Firas Modad
Increase in shipping and energy risks
A very brief update (and an invitation to tomorrow's subscriber call).
Jul 13 • Firas Modad
Iran Goes All Out
With renewed strikes on Oman and Qatar, it seems that the war is back on in full, but the Americans face enormous constraints.
Jul 12 • Firas Modad
A day, a week, a month?
No one knows how long each round will last, but there are constraints on America and Iran limiting the duration of the conflict.
Jul 8 • Firas Modad
Iran War Update
The Iranian strikes on shipping indicate that the Iranians want another round.
Jul 7 • Firas Modad
Insurance Claims in the GCC: War or Terrorism?
Gulf states may claim that Iranian attacks against them were terrorism, leaving insurers on the hook.
Jul 7 • Firas Modad
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