Modad Geopolitics
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Trump, Putin, and the future of Ukraine (and Europe)
Why there will be no ceasefire before a final political settlement acceptable to Russia and the USA
Aug 19
•
Firas Modad
6
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Trump, Putin, and the future of Ukraine (and Europe)
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Nvidia, AMD, and Trump
The breakdown of the international trade order and the new risks to businesses, especially those dealing in dual use goods.
Aug 12
•
Firas Modad
6
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Nvidia, AMD, and Trump
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Lebanon: Hezbollah vs the State
Lebanon's cabinet decision to disarm Hezbollah creates new security risks, including Syrian intervention in Lebanon.
Aug 8
•
Firas Modad
5
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Lebanon: Hezbollah vs the State
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A World Remade
How Trump's trade wars are creating new geopolitical realities and affirming old ones.
Aug 5
•
Firas Modad
4
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A World Remade
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July 2025
The EU-USA Trade Deal
Implications for EU political stability and brief analysis
Jul 28
•
Firas Modad
1
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The EU-USA Trade Deal
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Britain's hot summer
Unrest, Labour's risk of collapse, and more.
Jul 25
•
Firas Modad
6
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Britain's hot summer
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The Massacre of the Druse and Implications for Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon
Syria's Islamists' taste for blood will not be abated, and Israel can do little about it. Jordan is becoming increasingly unstable.
Jul 20
•
Firas Modad
4
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The Massacre of the Druse and Implications for Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon
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Lebanon: No resolution in sight
Why Hezbollah cannot disarm.
Jul 11
•
Firas Modad
2
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Lebanon: No resolution in sight
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Suspended Confrontation
Nothing in the Iran-US/Israel confrontation has been resolved, raising the probability of a resumed conflict.
Jul 1
•
Firas Modad
4
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Suspended Confrontation
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June 2025
The Art of the Deal
Trump managed to degrade or severely damage the Iranian nuclear programme’s key facilities while avoiding a bigger war, for now.
Jun 25
•
Firas Modad
11
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The Art of the Deal
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Trump joins Netanyahu
Regime change war is inevitable
Jun 22
•
Firas Modad
7
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Trump joins Netanyahu
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The US is about to enter the war
Indicators of US entry to the war are accumulating, raising risks to shipping, aviation and energy, and to US companies.
Jun 19
•
Firas Modad
5
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The US is about to enter the war
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