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Strategic Risk Brief: Israel and Lebanon
Is Hezbollah trying to trap Israel in a ground war?
 • Firas Modad
Strategic Risk Brief: Update on Commercial Risks
There are no brakes on this war.
 • Firas Modad
Strategic Risk Brief: Urgent Shipping Update
On Iran's most recent attack on shipping.
 • Firas Modad
Strategic Risk Brief: Finding an Exit
Declaring victory is easy, but that would solve nothing, and may not even be possible.
 • Firas Modad
The Houthi are about to enter the war
Red Sea shutdown imminent.
 • Firas Modad
Strategic Risk Brief
Risks to Azeri and other energy assets, a brief overview of damaged assets, likely next targets, and how the US may end up with ballistic Hashashin.
 • Firas Modad
Escorting ships through Hormuz
The risks to energy infrastructure and shipping.
 • Firas Modad
Iran's strategy: No ceasefire until the Americans give up
Making sense of the Iranian madness
 • Firas Modad
The Iranians warn of the Samson Option.
The Iranians are going straight for civilian targets in the Gulf, including closing Hormuz, but are not yet attacking energy infrastructure.
 • Firas Modad

February 2026

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