Modad Geopolitics
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The Iranians only have the Samson Option
And neither side has a way out.
3 hrs ago
•
Firas Modad
3
Increase in shipping and energy risks
A very brief update (and an invitation to tomorrow's subscriber call).
Jul 13
•
Firas Modad
2
Iran Goes All Out
With renewed strikes on Oman and Qatar, it seems that the war is back on in full, but the Americans face enormous constraints.
Jul 12
•
Firas Modad
8
A day, a week, a month?
No one knows how long each round will last, but there are constraints on America and Iran limiting the duration of the conflict.
Jul 8
•
Firas Modad
4
Iran War Update
The Iranian strikes on shipping indicate that the Iranians want another round.
Jul 7
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Firas Modad
3
Insurance Claims in the GCC: War or Terrorism?
Gulf states may claim that Iranian attacks against them were terrorism, leaving insurers on the hook.
Jul 7
•
Firas Modad
2
Russia's difficult position in Ukraine
Russian advances on major urban centres will create a massive refugee crisis, while also forcing Russia to escalate.
Jul 6
•
Firas Modad
4
June 2026
Hopeless Andy
Why Burnham is destined to fail, and why his honeymoon will be very short
Jun 30
•
Firas Modad
4
Why the ceasefire is fraying
Does the Middle East go into permanent war or is this just a negotiating tactic?
Jun 28
•
Firas Modad
5
Ukraine's threats to Belarus
Prospects for disastrous escalation in Europe
Jun 24
•
Firas Modad
4
Israel's strategic bind
Implications for Hormuz, and for Lebanon's non-payment risks.
Jun 22
•
Firas Modad
6
1
Britain next Prime Minister
Keir Starmer's term is ending, but nothing will change.
Jun 19
•
Firas Modad
5
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