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The Great Gulf Gamble
The UAE's OPEC withdrawal reflects a game changing breakdown in regional security. The nature of risk in the GCC is dramatically shifting.
Apr 30
•
Firas Modad
5
New Iraqi PM-designate
Multiple messages to America, Iran, and Iraqi militias.
Apr 29
•
Firas Modad
8
Israel-Lebanon negotiations
Dancing on the edge of the abyss.
Apr 28
•
Firas Modad
7
Does the Iran War Resume?
That, or the double blockade continues indefinitely.
Apr 24
•
Firas Modad
2
Blairism's Long Death Rattle
The unpopularity of Blairism is obvious, but replacing it will be highly destabilising.
Apr 23
•
Firas Modad
4
Trump decides to delay
Rather than risk further escalation, Trump chose to back down
Apr 21
•
Firas Modad
3
The US-Iran War is likely to resume tonight
The Iranians refuse to negotiate on America's terms
Apr 21
•
Firas Modad
9
1
Understanding Trump's Contradictory Statements
The Iranians know that the Americans are constrained, and are pressing their advantage. The Americans are getting ready to return to war.
Apr 19
•
Firas Modad
6
American strategy and the future of the GCC
Understanding the American blockade and how it will backfire
Apr 15
•
Firas Modad
3
1
More shipping disruption
Trump's unrealistic counterblockade of Hormuz invites Houthi and Chinese blockades, and more Iranian attacks on shipping.
Apr 12
•
Firas Modad
10
Hormuz remains closed
Iran trying to force the USA to restrain Israel in Lebanon
Apr 9
•
Firas Modad
4
Iran: The Regional Hegemon?
If the fragile ceasefire holds, the war intended to cement Israeli hegemony would have spectacularly backfired.
Apr 8
•
Firas Modad
9
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