Modad Geopolitics
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More shipping disruption
Trump's unrealistic counterblockade of Hormuz invites Houthi and Chinese blockades, and more Iranian attacks on shipping.
Apr 12
•
Firas Modad
9
Hormuz remains closed
Iran trying to force the USA to restrain Israel in Lebanon
Apr 9
•
Firas Modad
3
Iran: The Regional Hegemon?
If the fragile ceasefire holds, the war intended to cement Israeli hegemony would have spectacularly backfired.
Apr 8
•
Firas Modad
9
The limits of the madman theory
Geopolitics untethered from reason produces disaster.
Apr 7
•
Firas Modad
14
1
1
Re-thinking the drivers of the Iran War
And, therefore, its duration and its targets, including Greenland and Canada.
Apr 3
•
Firas Modad
4
2
The collapse of restraint, and the global economy
Trump attempts a deal, fails, and escalates. Now the Iranians will target every American business and diplomatic asset.
Apr 2
•
Firas Modad
7
1
1
Trump prepares to declare victory
Trump's withdrawal from the war would raise the risk of chaos in the region as it adjusts to Iranian power and the ineffectiveness of American…
Apr 1
•
Firas Modad
11
3
March 2026
Climbing the Escalation Ladder
Long War, Rationing, Strikes, & Ground Operations against the GCC.
Mar 28
•
Firas Modad
4
Trump delays an inevitable, impossible choice
Ten minutes after publishing the article below, Trump backed down, temporarily.
Mar 26
•
Firas Modad
8
1
Kuwait and UAE Warning
American ground operations against Iran would severely raise risks to critical infrastructure in the GCC
Mar 26
•
Firas Modad
11
2
Strategic Risk Brief: Ending the war would end Pax Americana.
Negotiations while ground operations are being prepared means that negotiations will fail, with catastrophic effects.
Mar 25
•
Firas Modad
10
Paid subscribers' chat
Let's talk about the Iran War and anything else
Mar 25
•
Firas Modad
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