Archive - Modad Geopolitics

April 2025

European Power Outage

Spain, Portugal and parts of France suffer major network failure

Apr 28 •

India Pakistan War Risks

A terrorist attack in Kashmir makes an Indian strike on Pakistan, and subsequent retaliation, more likely.

Apr 25 •

The trade war in context

Why the stakes are so high, and why any America-China deals will be narrow, limited, and temporary.

Apr 17

Yemen: The Coming Bloodletting

The pieces are in place for a full renewal of the civil war across Yemen, but Saudi-UAE disagreements are an obstacle to America achieving its…

Apr 15 •

Will Iran yield?

The US is massing equipment and capabilities in a manner suggesting that Iran, not just the Houthi, is on the target list, forcing Iran to negotiate.

Apr 11 •

Tariffs: why Trump has the best hand

Europe, and China, are both stuck, but, in China's case, this can result in a backlash.

Apr 10 •

Trump's Economic Vision

Contextualising the tariffs.

Apr 7 •

The geopolitics of tariffs

How Trump will use trade in furtherance of consolidating over the West and isolating China into a separate sphere of influence.

Apr 3 •

The EU's Democratic Crisis

The European establishment will intensify its authoritarian turn to compensate for its policy weaknesses.

Apr 1 •

March 2025

Turkey's protests

Why Erdogan will survive this, too, and what happens if he does not.

Mar 31 •

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